Stages of Urban

Development

 

The conclusion to be drawn from Chapter 2 is that the urban system is subject to a complicated dynamic process, which, if left alone, does not lead to a state of equilibrium, but will always be fraught with friction and produce conflicting reactions from individual population groups. In what follows an attempt will be made to arrange the many spatial changes in the urban system along a few main lines.

To that end, use will be made of an assumed connection between the changes in the structure of the urban system on the one hand and the development stage of a region or town on the other. We assume that each stage is characterized by certain specific urban developments, which tend to be found everywhere unless the government or other actors consciously try to steer developments in another direction, one country's experience probably influencing policy in another. It must be noted that this relation­ship can vary between countries because the process of accelerated urban­ization started at different points in time.

The definition of the successive development stages must perforce remain general. It is based on socio-economic development, its major character­istics being the changes in the structure of the economy and of income level. As far as economic structure is concerned, three very broad stages are conceived: first, the transition from a largely agrarian to an industrial society, second, the transition from an industrial economy to a tertiary economy, and third, the growth of the tertiary sector to maturity. In what follows these three stages will be distinguished, and the spatial changes of a town which can be considered typical of each stage will be investigated. Very broad definitions are envisaged, which will help to schematize to some extent the process of urban change.

As has been said earlier, a description of spatial change must indicate

how the behaviour of the various actors in the urbanization process­

Stages of Urban Development           25

households, industries, and governments-in pursuing an increase of wel­

fare causes the urban system to evolve. In this chapter the consequences of the locational behaviour of industries and households will be the main topic. The part played by the government 'will be less explicitly dealt with, being kept for discussion in Part III.

 

3.1. The first stage: urbanization

During the first of the three stages distinguished, when a country or region can grow no further as an agricultural economy and gradually becomes an industrial country, the chain of events is fairly obvious. As a result of population growth and the limited possibilities of extending avail­able agricultural land, rural districts will have a growing redundant labour force, entailing a corresponding decrease in income level. When new indus­trial employment is created, a migration flow will be initiated from the country to the towns where it is concentrated. Because in the early days of the process the income level and the number of hours to be worked daily do not permit a person to live too far from his work, that flow will lead to strong urban concentrations and to a decrease in the rural population. The newcomers are obliged to live in the town itself, in new residential quarters built around the existing centre, near the factories. This first phase is char­acterized, therefore, by the fast expansion of towns with massive, concen­trated town quarters. Similarly, new towns spring up in places that appear

favourable to industrialization.                   ,

Such a process of urbanization was a characteristic development of all the countries of Europe following the Industrial Revolution in England. In most of them it began in the nineteenth century, but in some, only after the Second World War. We will come to some specific differences between these two groups of countries later.

The phenomenon of accelerating urbanization can manifest itself in dif­ferent ways. If the country-to-town movement in a country is oriented largely towards one particular town which embodies all modern develop­ment, that town has a chance of growing into the national metropolis.

However, the movement may just as well orient itself to a number of smaller towns scattered across the country. Whether one or the other

development occurs depends not so much on the urbanization process itself as on the historical situation in the country involved, the degree of political centralization or decentralization, and the propensities of a region, or town within a region, for industrialization. Those propensities in turn depend on the town's location in the national and international context, the physical circumstances, the facilities for the supply of raw materials and the dispatch of final products, and on factors of a more political nature

 

26       Urban Europe

such as the policy pursued by the government with regard to industrializa­tion and providing facilities for the establishment of industries and the expansion of towns. Together such factors constitute the conditions and limitations relevant to the locational behaviour of industries as described earlier. Most urban development at this stage is linked to existing urban centres, which until then have functioned as administrative, cultural, re­ligious, commercial, or military centres.

This supports the hypothesis that an existing urban nucleus, with its attendant agglomeration advantages, is highly conducive to successful industrialization, and that its diversification is important for further growth prospects; Yet, in places where the presence of raw materials, a favourable labour market, or good transport prospects compensate for the lack of an existing urban milieu, entirely new industrial towns may come into being.

As far as the spatial structure of a town is concerned, the most important feature at this stage of the urban process is the concentration of the devel­opment. Towns go through a phase of concentrated growth amid a stag­

nant surrounding territory. If there are several urban centres near enough to one another, there is a chance of their growing together to form one agglomeration.

The spatial form of a town is determined to a great extent by the trans­port facilities and traffic provisions available. The stage of economic devel­opment and income level force those who work in the town to go on living there, their choice of residence being limited by available transport provi­sions. As transport technologies develop, the spatial shape of the town evolves. In the early days of the Industrial Revolution workers had to walk to work, so that houses had of necessity to be built near to factories. With the advent of railways and tramways longer distances could be bridged, and towns expanded along the tracks and around the stations. As public transport in town is the main mode of conveyance, the townsman's mobi­lity is restricted to the town where he lives, which consequently is charac­terized by a high residential density. Within the town all sorts of public amenities have to be provided for the fast-growing population, in the fields of medical care, hygiene, education, and recreation. As a rule, the creation of amenities follows the growth of employment and of the attracted popu­lationafter a considerable timelag. Without denying that great social abuse

occurs; we conclude that many people increase their well-being in this period by moving from country to town. It is not difficult to appreciate that the highest priority is given to liaving a job and hence being sure of one's livelihood, however meagre, and that the house and its surroundings

are considered less important, as also is the availability of public amenities. It is at the next stage that increase of welfare will be looked for in the elements that. are still lacking.

Stages of Urban Development      27

Although this pattern is roughly applicable to both Eastern and Western European countries, it seems worth while to point out some specific features of developments resulting from time lags in Eastern European countries as compared to those of Western European nations.

"In the course of the nineteenth century, Eastern Europe was on the fringe of areas then becoming urbanized as a result of the industrial revolu­tion." 1 The waves of innovation that originated in England-the main

growth pole at that time-reached Eastern Europe late and with consider- .

ably less impetus. This impetus was largely cushioned by the specific politi­cal conditions in the semi-feudal system then prevailing in Eastern Europe.

A gradual increase in the division of labour and the developments in technology created conditions for the emergence of industrial towns. They mainly grew up close to raw-material resources and in areas that formerly

had well-developed crafts.

The forms of urban settlement continue to include the following:

-big industrial cities with high spatial concentration of socio-economic

activities and of population;

-big and medium-sized conurbations, primarily involved in the extrac­tion of mineral and power-generating raw materials; this form is also characteristically dense and, in its first phase, has a relatively poor pattern of links;

-medium-sized and small towns that function as trading intermediaries

for agriculture.

In each of these forms, the levels of welfare in the various town quarters inhabited by different population groups differ considerably. There are no urban transport systems or other urban systems that service the town over its entire territory. Because of the lack of adequate transport services, housing developments are located near town centres and near industrial plants.

Over the period under discussion the big cities and conurbations undergo changes generated mainly by the development of urban transport systems, by the extension of water supplies and sewage systems, the in­crease in housing construction and the first attempts at town planning. Town-centres become less densely populated, towns continue to expand in space, and new industrial centres and housing developments begin to appear along railway lines for instance. In a few cases, too, new towns are built according to urban layouts and are provided with the basic system of technical infrastructure in their centres. The essentially positive changes in the group of towns under discussion show only one side of the picture; it

 

I From S. Herman and J. Regulski, op. cit.

 

UE1 ~ 0

 

 

28 Urban Europe

must also be pointed out that in all of them slum areas are expanding, as a

result of the immigration of untrained rural people.

The third of the above~mentioned forms-the small and the medium~ sized towns-were stagnating, at the expense of both living conditions and technical infrastructure.

The retarded and relatively weak impact of the urbanization and indus~ trialization processes in Eastern Europe produced virtually 110 changes in social or eCOnomic relations in the rural areas. The big landed estates, applying traditional methods, were a barrier to progress in agriculture. Accordingly, the already considerable disparity in welfare between village and town worsened in all aspects, becoming one of the most essential factors affecting the processes of urbanization over many decades to come.

Redundant labour in the most densely populated rural areas was grow~ ing. Onlysotne ofthe jobless could find work in towns, as the industries there were still underdeveloped. Moreover, the immigrants lacked the requisite occUpational training. This produced a great wave of emigration of the East European rural population to the most advanced West Euro~ pean countries and to the United States.

The nation states that emerged as new or in a new form as a result of the First World War faced huge problems. The necessity of integrating their territories according to new boundaries was the first of these problems. It was often necessary to redesign entire railway networks. Then individual railway lines were combined in a nationwide network. In contrast to the railway, the road system was generally of poor quality. Horses used as draft animals still provided the basic means of transport, as motoring was still in the fUture.

Some steps were undertaken to prepare the economic integration of these countries; primarily this involved the industrialization of what had earlier been fUlly agrarian regions. Hence the incentive given to the alloca~ tion of new industries outside the existing industrial centres. Regional power~generating systems were created.

Attempts Were made to reform the anachronistic agricultural system in order to enCOurage agriculture output and to help combat rural unemploy~ ment. But the manner in which this was undertaken was limited in scope and rather ineffectual.

Governments had to intervene in the towns, where they tried to combat poor housing conditions and the inevitable building speculation by passing laws protecting occupants on the one hand and encouraging housing con­struction on the other. It was at this time also that the first housing projects on a condominium basis were launched by various social organiz­

ations with a view to creating decent living conditions for the less-well-off population groups.

Stages of Urban Development 29

The establishment of appropriate economic bases for the municipal self­governments that were il1capable of coping with the ~ew problems presented another serious difficulty. Through subsidies, credIt, and conce~­sions granted to private enterprises many towns managed to develop theIr transport system, their communications, and power supplies. Water and sewage systems and sewage treatment plants, however, did not meet the towns' real needs. No attempts were made to modernize town centres. Many towns were in an economic predicament.

In Eastern Europe the end of the Second World War marked the turn­ing-point. The political system underwent basic changes, at a ti~e when countries were trying to recover from the damages of the war and, In some cases, adapting to changes in state boundaries. Top priority was given to industrial growth.

The industrialization programmes created a huge demand for manpower in the urbanized areas, and this in turn caused powerful waves of migration from the rural areas to the towns. The years of fastest urban growth for the Eastern European countries was between 1960 and 1975.

The migration waves were not caused by economic considerations alone. The continuing disparity in welfare level between town and village was another factor. Towns offered access to education, training, and cultural facilities, w~th all their inherent advantages. Moreover, farm work, although sorhetimes well paid, enjoyed little prestige. Gradually emigration to towns resulted in a manpower deficit in agriculture, although this only really became acute in the next period. Another factor conducive to the shift of manpower from agriculture was the development of manufacturing industries, centres of technical services to agriculture, and basic services in rural areas, all of which provided non~agricultural jobs.

But, as previously mentioned, capital shortages during the period of reconstruction and the emphasis on the priority of industrial over other investment naturally reduced expenditures on social infrastructure, which at that time was still considered non-productive. This affected urban devel­opment in an important way. If urbanization is measured by the number of people living in towns and by the degree to which towns are equipped with municipal services, then industrialization can be said to have outpaced urbanization during this period.

 

3.2. The second stage: suburbanization

The second stage is referred to as one of the further developments of the industrial era. Speaking in broad, schematic terms one might say that urban development, after a period when factories spring up everywhere

 

31

 

there is a fast accelerating evolution in the economic structure in which

towns grow at the cost of rural areas, has now ~ntered a stage of con­

solidation with its own characteristic changes In the urban structure.

Although 'towns continue to grow and to attract people from outside, .the

emphasis at this stage is on qualitative improvement. In t~rms of the obJec­tive functions of the actors as postulated in Chapter 2, It could be stated that~with work available and increasing~priority shifts to better hous­ing and public amenities. These become available as a result of ~n increase in income, which individually and collectively is spent accordIng to new

preferences.                                                    . .              .               .

The evolution of motorized transport is a decIsive factor In the spatial changes of the town. Extended public-transport facilities and the int.roduc­tionof buses and private cars which reach areas not co?nect.ed with .the network of trains and tramways widen the scope of residential locatIOn. New spacious residential quarters in more pleasant surroundings, "garden towns" sometimes can now be added to the city. Town parks and green

belts are designed'; museums, theatres, schools, and h?spitals are built in

other empty places. In the city centre itself space IS reserve? ~or new

employment in the tertiary sector, or existing monumental bUildIngs are given a new function as office buildings.

Factories are moved as much as possible to the town's periphery where they are less of a nuisance and yet, thanks to the new modes of trans~o:t, accessible. In the town, banks, offices, and the whole complex of admmls­trative and personal services inherent in a complicated, industrial society

are accommodated. It is in this period, too, that people begin to live out of town while working in the city. The movement is started by s?:~ll well­to-do groups who, in terms of time, income, and transport facilities, can afford to move out, and it develops into an inverse migration flow fast growing in volume. To the people involved, living in a quiet rural environ­ment is important enough to outweigh the sacrifice of the mo~e~ and time required for bridging the distance to their work and the provIsIOns of the town. Given their objective function, they have again increased their wel­fare, provided that the infrastructure between their new residence and t~e

town is adequate. In very nearly all cases it is the government that IS responsible for that infrastructure, thus the government has a P?we:ful instrument with which to influence the spatial pattern of urbamzatlOn. Through the construction of infrastructure and the provision ~f cert~in forms of transport the government can reinforce or check certam spatial

tendencies. The better the transport system, the more a town can expand. .

It seems worth while to point out at this stage other features that are more or less typical in Eastern European countries.

In these cOllntries everything connected with prodllction was given top priority. For this reason, and also becallse of the lack 'of capital, homing and services were developed at slower rates.

Programmes for IIrban development were subordinated to plans for industrial growth. With the exception of the big cities, expenditure on the construction of new houses was treated as investment accompanying the construction of new industrial plants. Thlls the small and medillm-sized towns were left to stagnate. if no industrial plant happened to be located in them. The small tOwns were particularly affected, as they lost their function as intermediaries between agricultural production and the consumer market after central­ized integrated systems of agriculture production and consumption had been created. In contrast to this, regions that formerly had some industry were developed very rapidly to form urban agglomerations. New towns emerged, while those in which new industrial establishments were localized recorded very high rates of growth.

On a parallel with this, ran a strong tendency to increase the size of industrial estab­lishment and to group plants in industrial complexes: Thepolicyunderiying this was' an attempt to lower prime cost through generalized economies of scale. Big complexes of industry with work forces of up to several thousand people were being established. The location decision for each. of these industrial groupings had a powerful' effect on the further course of urbanization and spatial structure of the country.

Some of the new plants were localized in less developed regions to ensure their growth. The discovery of new mineral resources also had a strong effect on location decisions. Very often such locations were chosen in order to absorb the redundant labour force from the rural areas around it and to prevent emigration to towns. This again helped to reduce the demand for new dwellings in the towns.

Most plants, however, were localized in the existing large industrial centres. One important aspect of their location was the need for qualified people from rural areas to take jobs in industry.

In contrast to Western Europe, a great number of people were able. as a result of transport services. to. go .on living in their villages and to travel daily to their place of work in the towns. This kind of commuting increased to such an extent that a special group of workers-peasants emerged. one in which the head of the family had a job in the town while the remaining members of the family worked on small farms. The size of the population group grew in proportion to the implementation of the industrialization programme. which provided for the location of new industrial plants in the less advanced regions.

The vast number of commuters created an immense demand for more extensive mass travel facilities. a sector which was then given top priority. Urban and suburban trans­port systems were developed (tramways, bus lines. electric trains). Business enterprises built their own independent transport systems for their workers. Private motoring was still insignificant and. at this stage. not supported by the government.

Travel to work, interindustrial relationships between complexes of economic activities and the urbanization of rural areas around the cities and major towns-all these contri­buted to the development of the cities into so-called urban agglomerations.

The term urban agglomeration denotes a group of settlement units whose aggregate population. economic potentials and functions are distinctly different both in quantity and quality from the other elements of the nation's settlements system. An agglomeration consists of the following spatially and functionally integrated elements:

I. A city or a group of towns which form the central area (the core) of the agglomer­

ation.

2. Smaller towns and urban settlements around the core.

3. Villages whose characteristics have been transformed to the extent that it seems

justified to designate them as urbanized areas.    .

4. Agrarian areas, forests and recreation areas which fulfil service functions for the

benefit of the agglomeration's population.

The criteria for delimiting the agglomerations usually depend on the purpose of the

given study and .on the information available.

 

 

ov~r the period under investigation urban agglomerations grew rapidly in all the

socialist countnes of Europe. This was the result of the rising rate of economic growth and the co~comltant dynamic processes of spatial concentration and deconcentration and of spatIal and functional integration. In a number of cases, commuting played a significant role to~; this was due to the insufficient housing resources in the central areas of the agglomeratIons and the concentrated allocation of new industrial workplaces.

In th~ urban agglomerations, with big towns or cities at their centres, the biggest

populatIOn and economic potentials were concentrated. The incipient agglomerations emerglllg l~ areas of newly discovered raw materials showed the highest growth rates.

The spatIal forrns assumed by urban agglomerations at this stage were typical of the

premotonng stage: starlike patterns along the lines of masstransport.2

Generally it can be said that this phase of suburbanization in Eastern

Europe became established when social criteria began tQ gain importance.

At this s~ag~ urbanization process involves the development of the social infrastructure

to include. mdlspensable elements in the equipment of the urban area. Their importance

became widely recOgnized.

Material production and social infrastructure are mutually interdependent elements in the development 'proce~s. The development of social infrastructure stimulates the devel­opment of ~aten~1 production. Conversely, if the development of infrastructure fails to

keep pac~ with riSing social need the development rate of material production may fall, thus addmg to the .economic and spatial disproportions rather than improving them. An awar~ness of this s.ltuation led to a gradual increase in the allocation of more capital for

housmg constructIon and living space and the raising of minimal living standards. Attempts wer~ made to introduce new, more attractive and more diversified architectonic

forms to aVOId the monotony of prefabricated buildings. A full programme aimed at

prOvldlllg the urban population with a range of services by developing the system of basic

services and sUPPleme:1ting it with better facilities in town-quarter centres and town

centres began to be put into operation.

At about the sarne time the working week is being reduced. The extra free time

tOge~~er Wlt~ the rapid development of private motoring considerably increases spatial

mobility which resulted also in increased recreation and tourism. Demands for areas

suitable .for weekend recreation around the towns is rising. Weekend cottages are being

built III Illcreasmg numbers.

The increased eXpenditure for these purposes made possible a decrease in the disparity

in welfare level between urban and rural areas. Housing settlements built according to

urban standa:ds Were provided for the employees of big state-owned farms. The service

systems catenngfor the entire population, both rural and urban, are being extended.

The social policy carried out in rural areas must be seen as one element of the overall

policy for the development of agriculture. Nutrition had become one of the most funda­

mental proble~s. T.he rising rate of consumption tends to exceed the increase in agricul­

tUral output, smce In the previous period less capital was invested in agriculture than in industry. Hence eVery country has to undertake a comprehensive programme for increas­ing ItS agncultural output.

Another result of high industrial investment was that in towns manpower deficits

become more and more acute. Given the shortage of labour, increasing employment

no. longer furthers economic growth. An increase in labour productivity becomes the

pnorlty. . .

Thes~ conditIons lead to the introduction of programmes for what was called intensive

indust~lal ?eveloPrnent. Programmes for rapid technological advance are carried out.

AttentIOn IS focuSed therefore on selected industries in accordance with the desired

distribution of labour.                                   '

 

­

2 S. Herman and J. R.cgulski, op. dt.

The modernization of industry involves the scrapping. of obsolete factories. Small industrial plants disappear too. Production is. concentrated in separate industrial quarters. Although this. has' a number of advantages, it does increase commuting dis­tances, a circumstance women find particularly troublesome. Once this was realized, small industrial establishments were reintroduced in residential. town quarters.

The development of a network of services, the rising rate of housing construction, the specific features of industrial development, the reshaping of the layout of road networks to suit the development of motoring~all these factors contribute to the transformation of the. internal structure of towns.. At the same time, continuing urban. development re­inforces the structure of urban agglomerations and even leads to the emergence of urban­ized regions or districts where several. agglomerations coalesce. In some cases, such regions extend beyond state boundaries. Their spatial form also tends to change. Whereas formerly agglomerations developed generally along main transport lines, at. present the areas between those zones tend to fill. in, as private motoring increases individual mobi­lity. Thus agglomerations tend to change in shape from a starlike pattern to that of a "fat blot" spilling out in all directions.

These big concentrations of population, industry, and .services n.ecessitate the develop­ment of complicated systems of technical infrastructure. Heating systems for towns and agglomerations must be constructed as also regional water supplies and sewage systems. The growing intensification of internal links within agglomerations leads to the adjust­mentof the road network to take the increasing traffic flow and also to tie in with the development of regional transport systems. The number of commuter Journeys does not alter, but people travel for a different reason. Whereas formerly people travelled to work because of the housing shortage in towns, now they are more likely to travel because they choose to live away from the centre. More and more people prefer to liVe on the outer fringes of agglomerations. Town centres become less populated whereas the suburbs witness rapid, occasionally uncontrolled building activity.

The development and intensification of primarily industrial production damages the environment in a variety of ways. Accordingly, plans for the protection of natural amelll­ties on national, regional, and agglomeration scale have been worked out. In some areas industrial development has been reduced, to the benefit of the tourism and agriculture on which the economic development of those areas depends.

The stage which urban development has now reached makes it imperative for plans to be coordinated. Hence the increasing significance of spatial plans. In Eastern Europe as in Western Europe, long-term plans for the countries' space-economic development and for comprehensive regional development have been worked out. Those plans are gaining in importance.

It is necessary to improve upon previous methods of planning to take into consider­ation new phenomena and fast changing circumstances. Correct planning of the develop­ment of agglomerations is especially important.

The stage of development discussed in this chapter is characteristic of a number ?f cities of relatively recent vintage, while the socialist countries of Eastern Europe seem stdl to be in the early phase of this stage.3

The last phase of this stage, particularly in Western Europe, is notable for the tremendous increase in the use of the private car and the heavily

increased demand for the elements of social infrastructure which in due

course come within almost everybody's reach. The positive and negative

consequences of the introduction of the private car in urban spatial struc­

ture can hardly be overestimated. The possession of a private car makes it

easier for distances to be bridged regardless of the location of a public

 

3 S. Herman and J. Regulski. op. dt.

 

34

Urban Europe

Stages of Urban Development

35

 

transport network. Commuter travel is affected in particular: people no longer need to live near their work or near public transport services. For large categories of society an entirely new situation is created; they can now live anywhere within a given wide area and still have. adequate access to all the elements they consider important to their welfare. A job in town can easily be combined with living a considerable distance away, and a number of central provisions in the city will remain within reach. The tendency that first manifested itself in the building of garden cities is now being continued on a vast scale.

It is typical of all European countries where cars are common that many. people aspire to a house of their own in green surroundings outside the town. The policy of governments and housing authorities rarely resists that tendency; on the contrary, they stimulate the outward movement by encouraging large-scale construction outside towns, hence the massive suburbanization that marks the present spatial changes in many European towns. The population now grows in the suburbs of central towns, while in the cities themselves the number of inhabitants is often decreasing.

Now that towns are spreading over an ever-increasing area, the terms "urban area" or "urban district" have become more accurate than "town". Central city and suburban surroundings are functionally united, and within the larger area homes and places of work are spatially distributed, as are other places for recreation, which also have space requirements in the same area.

 

3.3. The third stage: desurbanization and inter-urban decentralization

 

The development described in Section 3.2 may be called positive in that it meets prevailing needs as regards housing, recreation, medical care, shopping, etc., and makes for greater living comfort and has done away with overcrowded town quarters. But there are also obvious negative con­sequences, and it must be feared that they will get worse as the scale of suburbanization becomes larger, the worst problems being those relating to ~ffi~ .

F or agglomerations which find themselves in this stage of urban devel­opment, existing road infrastructure can no longer cope with the thousands of commuters w~o on week?ays try to get into town and find a parking space. The resultmg congestiOn makes all kinds of workplaces and central provision.s in the city centre less and' less accessible. Attempts are being made to Improve the centre's accessibility by improving the infrastructure

and stimulating the use of public transport.                                          .

To improve the infrastructure, it is necessary to clear areas for new access roads, to modify the layout of streets, and to provide extensive parking facilities. The required space is found mostly in the old residential quarters, which date from the time when urbanization first started; they are sacrificed in order to modernize and reconstruct the centre. People living there find themselves compelled to seek refuge on the outskirts or joining those who have moved to suburban municipalities.

When the measures to increase the centre's accessibility by car prove ineffective, there is a good chance that new service industries will decide to settle in the city centre. Of course, increased traffic intensity will once more lead to congestion, and to additional nuisance for the townspeople, thus giving them an additional stimulus to move to the suburbs. Indeed, it will grow increasingly difficult, and require ever higher investments, to improve the situation.

Measures that aim at transferring an increasing proportion of the traffic in city centres from private cars to public transport have the same indirect result. Improvement of the public transport services and their extension to the suburban municipalities around the town does indeed make for easier access to the town by the suburbanites, but at the same time makes people even more willing to leave the town for the suburbs. The tendency towards progressive suburbanization and the attendant continuous need to adapt and extend the infrastructure and the public transport system at even higher cost will be maintained for as long as tertiary industries find it worth while to be located in the town centre. As it functions on an increas­ingly large scale, the tertiary sector needs more and more space, which has to be claimed from the older living quarters in the town. Wherever the process described here occurs, the decline in the number of inhabitants of the central town may be seen to continue.

In the end, this development threatens the prosperous existence of the town itself. When the inhabitants leave town, provisions such as shops, schools, and medical care will soon follow. If the city centre remains con­gested there comes a time when offices, too, are attracted to a location in the suburbs, or even outside the urban district in other parts of the country, which so far have escaped full urbanization and remain more accessible because there is no congestion. Not only towns but suburbs also will decline in population, while elsewhere still rural areas will be trans­formed into urban areas, often at the cost of the natural environment and valuable farmland. This is the stage of desurbanization, attended by inter­urban decentralization; we shall discuss it in more detail later on.

In Table 3.1 and in Figs 3.1 and 3.2 the different stages of urban develop­ment are shown. During the first stage the central city (or core) is growing fast, and the suburban (in this case still rural) ring around the central city

 

36

Urban Europe

Stages of Urban Development

37

declines or remains constant in population. This is the stage of urbaniza­tion. In the second stage (suburbanization) the growth of the central city starts to slacken while gradually the population of the suburban ring in­creases. The proportion of the population living in the ring increases con­siderably. In the third stage, that of des urbanization, the point has been reached where the population of the central city starts declining to such an extent that it results in an absolute decline of the population of the whole Functional Urban Region (FUR).4

The spatial development of this stage in the urban life cycle IS very different from that in the previous stage; no longer is the process character­ized by incremental contiguous or tree-ring-like growth. The absolute de­cline of the central city and its suburban commuting hinterland is associ­ated with a rapid increase in the population and jobs in and around the large (dominant) FUR within 50-120-kilometre range where the small and medium (subdominant or satellite) urban areas are to be found. The satel­lite cities will usually be at an earlier stage in the urban life cycle than the dominant FUR (Fig. 3.3), this being reflected, among other things, in their smaller size. The rate of inter-urban decentralization will be more rapid the greater the regional dynamism.

The people who are tempted to migrate to the small and medium-sized cities may well be returning from a suburban to an urban life-style, albeit in a smaller-sized urban centre. Such a move may reflect a wish to avail themselves of several benefits: better access to work, improved service

4 For definition of Functional Urban Regions, see Chapter 5.

 

Stages of Urban Development

39

provision and more open space, often more living space, access to the

countryside and a wide range of recreational opportunities. and the wish to avoid the numerous economic and social costs incurred in the original location.

The decentralization of the population and latterly of jobs is a process that characterizes urban systems in the desurbanization stage, irrespec­tive of their size, .region, or location in relation to other cities; what varies is the rate at which this process operates (Fig. 3.4). Cities in the prosperous

regions of a country are apt to decentralize more rapidly than those in the

peripheral or less prosperous regions. The size of the city system is also

important in explaining rates of decentralization, mostly because size is

related to the density of the urban core, which is linked in turn to the stage

that a city has reached in its life cycle. The process is also determined by

the role that a FUR performs in the national settlement system.

 

Urban Europe

Stages of Urban Development       41

arises as to what evolutionary stage we may expect next. We shall try to identify and systematize these stages.

Let us start with the simple definition that the total area of urban land in use for urban purposes in a FUR equals the product of the number of households (population divided by the average growth of a household) and the average land-use per household. So:

p

A =                                          s          pJ)

f

40

3.3.1. The national settlement system

The development of inter-urban decentralization of large FURs in the desurbanization stage and the rapid expansion of medium-sized towns is

ne aspect of city-system interdependency in advanced economies. Indi­

°idual FURs no longer grow and change in isolation but are greatly

~nfluenced by events taking place elsewhere in the national settlement sys­

tem. The interdependencies are affected by flows of goods, services, infor­mation, decisions and capital between various sectors of the economy. As most employment is concentrated in urban areas, the pattern and intensity

f such flows will inevitably determine the processes of urban development.

o The properties of city-systems have traditionally been described in terms

f rank-size distributions, central place theory, growth pole theory, hierar­

o hical diffusion, and the like. It is questionable whether such inductive

~ules and theories are at all useful in explaining the contemporary spatial

organization of settlements. An understanding of these processes wi!! ulti­mately depend on improving knowledge on the perception, evaluation, and decision-making of major actors who in turn are largely influenced by the structural components of the social means of production.

in which

A = total area of urban land, P total population,

f = average household size,

s = area per household. We may also write (3J) as:

A = P + .~ -.i:                      (3.2)

The point over the symbols indicates that we are dealing with relative

changes oVer a period of time.     .                                               .      .

Now we do know one or two things about the quantities contaIned In the right-hand side of equation (3.2). The total population of a FUR has been mentioned more than once in previous pages, and we know that there comes a point where the population of large FURS falls into a decline, and P, thus, becomes negative.

.~ is the relative growth of area per household. We assume that it will remain positive, but decreasingly so. In other words, we assume that the demand for land per household will grow further (land for provisions and

job opportunities included), but to a decreasing extent.                        .

j, lastly, representing the relative growth of the average household, IS negative. The average household is becoming even smaller. The scope for reduction being, naturally, limited-a household can hardly consist of less than one person-the relative decrease will tend asymptotically towards

zero.

The four factors have been combined and are shown in Fig. 3.5. During the first period (0 - tA) the population, the number of house-.

holds, and the total demand for land all increase. Desurbanization, though heralded by the evolution through time of the various quantities, has not yet set in. tA is' the crucial point in time where the first stage of desurbani­zation (fA tB) begins, the stage at which the population falls but the number of households as well as the total demand for land for urban

. purposes goes on rising. At tB the loss in population exceeds t~e conse­quences of decreasing family size; the number of households begIns to fall

3.4. The future: reurbanization?

The process of accelerated desurbanization and deconcentration de­scribed above depicts one alternative future. Another is that of reurbaniza­tion (Fig. 3.1). In Western Europe, both local and central governments have woken up to the possibility of turning the tide in their large cities and restoring their image, by rehabilitating the existing housing stock, intro­ducing urban-renewal programmes, improving the traffic situation, creating

pedestrian zones, and upgrading the social in,frastruct.ure. Whether su.ch

measures will persuade more people to stay In the CIty and also entIce people from outside the city to come and settle is hard to say. The trend towards the desurbanization in the largest cities seems too general and so

trong that only through the application of a most rigorous policy could

:ignificant results be expecte~, and such a po!icy has yet to be d~~eloped. .It

seems inevitable, then, that In the not too dIstant future our cItIes, and In

articular the large FURS, will be facing a host of problems. The rather

~essimistic considerations contained in subsection 3.4.1 may be helpful in

explaining what these problems are.

3.4.1. Stages of desurbanization

It was concluded in Section 3.4 that the developments taking place in the

large FURS of Western Europe are likely to continue, and the question

 

42

Urban Europe

Stages of Urban Development

43

in the absolute sense. It is the second stage of desurbanization, in which the phenomena of decline are becoming more manifest. The last point of inter­est is fe, beyond which neither the greater demand for land per household nor the smaller average size of households can compensate any longer for the loss of population, so that the absolute demand for urban land is diminishing, too. Beyond point fe the town faces the necessity of contract­ing in the absolute physical sense.

3.4.2. The consequences of desurbanization

To find out what the consequences of desurbanization are, let us look at each stage somewhat closer. It will soon appear that the consequences

are cumulative, that is to say, new results add themselves to and reinforce earlier ones. The whole process has a snowball effect and threatens to lead eventually to a town's total downfall, turning a living entity into a ghost town.

The first stage is marked by continuing physical expansion of the town (land area, houses) and simultaneous contraction of the population. Though there are no exact figures available, from the little evidence there is it may ~e inferred that the change in the net migration-a major cause of populatIon loss-can be imputed partly to the increased exodus of the h~gher income groups and partly to the dwindling desire among the same ~md of people to mI~r.ate from rural areas to a big city. Even if the average mcome of the remammg group of city dwellers continues to rise the in­

crease in the number of well-to-do inhabitants may well entail a' cutback

in the total income of the urban population. And what that means is obvious: less turnover for retailers, for the catering trade, and for other service~. Public transport, already facing fast-growing deficits, sees its mar­ket dwmdle, while the municipality finds its budget has shrunk and its social services are financially undermined.

It is quite likely that housebuilding will stagnate as soon as the second

stage is felt to be imminent. By the end of the first stage there will be no net demand for new houses; after it, there will be a surplus. This would not be so bad in a period of fast rising incomes, when houses tend to become obsolete q~ickl'y because of the dwindling demand for cheap houses; in such a penod It would be feasible to build new houses and discard the cheaper and older ones. But in a state of desurbanization one cannot count on f~st income growth, any more than on the need to replace the existing ?ousmg stock at a high rate with new ones more in line with higher mcomes. The less so, when there is an increasing tendency to renovate existing houses instead of simultaneously demolishing old and constructing new houses.

What is certain is that the more the demand still existing for new houses is met at this stage, the greater will be the surplus in the next stage. That is wh~ it is hi~hly opportune to investigate carefully during the first stage­WhICh a senes of towns have already entered-the extent to which we are

justified in meeting the demand for housing in view of the absolute decline in total demand for houses that can be envisaged in the foreseeable future.

The second stage, as has been said before, is marked by a shrinking population, a decrease in the number of households (hence less demand for

One wonders what the consequences of such an evolution may be. Some people may believe that the processes of expansion and contraction are bound JO occur side by side and will continue to do so. So, if the urban population at a given moment shows a marked predilection for smaller agglomerations and medium-sized towns, that is-according to these people-a natural phenomenon, not to be considered unusual, and to be accepted with all its consequences.

Now, to form an opinion on this matter we need to look at the phenom­ena a little closer and to evaluate them. In this way we can decide whether it is preferable to let the process run its course, check it, or try to reverse it.

UE1 _ E

 

44        Urban Europe

houses), but a continuing increase in the use of urban land. A drop in the demand for houses causes great difficulties in the construction trade, the more so because incomes can hardly be expected to rise in the period involved (see above). In fact, it is now the turn of employment in the building sector, alongside that in the service sectors, to plummet. In stage 2 more houses will be demolished than built, the cleared sites being used for other purposes, for the total demand for land is still increasing at this stage.

Awkward questions will now present themselves. If houses have to be demolished at all, which shall we condemn, those recently renovated, or the newer ones of lower quality? Where shall we start demolishing, in the central town or in the ring? Is it likely, or not, that more land will be required exactly where the housing stock is becoming smaller? Such ques­tions are difficult and far from encouraging. The picture is becoming grim.

The climax, or rather the nadir, of the transformation is reached in the third and last stage, in which to the former disintegrating processes is added the phenomenon of cleared sites being left unused. In this period there is neither reason nor money left to give those sites a meaningful purpose. The most logical solution is perhaps to raze the worst quarters to the ground and to turn them into green belts, so that eventually there will be a green-bordered town core surrounded by an urbanized, but shrinking ring of built-up areas. It seems logical, but would it be wise? Much capital is being invested in the renovation of precisely those old quarters, capital that is bound to depreciate faster than its investors envisage.

The alternative, starting the demolition programme in the ring, is not attractive either. By so doing, too much capital would be sacrificed to adapt the town to the diminishing number of households. Advantage would be gained from clearing bits of land which could for the greater part be restored to its original agrarian function (it would be better not to dwell on the cost price of those bits of land, however).

Wherever one starts the town is going to fall to pieces, showing gaps where land lies fallow. There will be a general decline which cannot fail to affect social relationships, crime, and cultural decay. Cultural and social bloom in the midst of absolute economic downfall is not a regular feature of our society.

The prospects are no less than frightening. All the more so if the process of economic decline has to be paid for with vast loss of capital in all sectors of economic life. Large-scale urban decline, in the sense of an overall deterioration of urban functions, could have serious consequences for society in the countries afflicted, for it heralds the complete ruin of the urban culture of the twentieth century. If such a disastrous state of affairs is to be warded off, reurbanization must be brought about fast and resolutely. Traffic problems dominate the present urban scene, and to resist urban

Stages of Urban Development       45

decline it will be necessary first of all to solve them. Experience has taught that the desired effect can be expected only from measures that manage to reduce traffic demand. Such measures must restrain suburbanization, and accomplish the reurbanization of central towns by giving new support to their residential function. To that end, industries will have to be redistri­buted across the whole urban area in such a way that home-to-work dis­tances are reduced and the use of the existing infrastructure made less one-way than it is now. Positive measures to achieve these ends have already been introduced in several European countries.

It has been assumed that shifts in the economic structure, the level of well-being, and the government's policy underlie the described spatial changes in urbanization. The changes involved are seen primarily as the results of actions by individuals and industries, motivated by their aspira­tions to a higher welfare level. The government's role in the process has

been discussed far less explicitly. Yet, as representative of the general inter-.

est the government has a very specific task. When the urbanization process is perceived to lead to discrepancies and unacceptable loss of well-being for certain groups of the population-the result, at least partially, of past government action-it is for the government to regulate and adjust matters in such a way as to ensure more welfare for everybody. In the section dealing with urban actors attention has already been given to the role of the government in general and to its objectives and powers of action.

In Part III the theory of urban policy and its instruments will be treated more specifically. Actual urban policy, within the context of regional policy, will also be treated after the empirical analysis of urban develop­ment trends in Part II.